Risk of recurrence during follow-up for optimally treated advanced epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) with a low-level increase of serum CA-125 levels.

BACKGROUND Our group evaluated the risk of recurrence for optimally treated advanced epithelial ovarian cancer (adEOC) in patients with a low-level rising serum CA-125 concentration within the normal range (0-35 kU/l). In addition, we tested the new proposed early CA-125 signal of progressive disease (EPD) criterion in the same study population. PATIENTS AND METHODS Patients treated from 1998 to 2006 for adEOC were identified at our institution. Inclusion criteria were as follows: CA-125 at time of diagnosis (>35 kU/l); International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics stages III-IV treated with optimal primary treatment; and complete response (CR) to primary treatment with normalization of CA-125. RESULTS Median progression-free survival and overall survival for the recurrence group (n = 60) were 17.7 and 38.2 months, respectively. The median follow-up time from CR to last contact was 40.2 months for patients in the nonrecurrence group (n = 36). An absolute increase in serum CA-125 levels of >or=5 kU/l compared with baseline CA-125 nadir values was significantly predictive of recurrence (odds ratio for recurrence = 402.98, P < 0.0001). The progression date was predated by the EPD criterion in 77% of patients with known progressive disease (median, 58 days early) with a sensitivity of 90%, a positive predictive value of 96.4%, and a false-positive rate of 5.6%. CONCLUSIONS Among patients with optimally treated adEOC in complete remission, a low-level increase in serum CA-125 concentration within the normal range is a strong independent predictive factor for disease recurrence. In this patient population, future prospective randomized trials should consider the evaluation of the EPD criterion.